Performing Songwriter

After 16 years and 118 issues, the independently published Performing Songwriter magazine ceased publication with the June 2009 issue.

As founder Lydia Hutchinson said, “It has never been just a magazine. It’s the community that formed around it and supported it, and it just wore the clothes of a publication. The community is still there, steadfast and strong; it’s simply time to change clothes.”

NO EXIT

No Exit is the source of perhaps Sartre's most famous quotation, "l'enfer, c'est les autres." "Hell is other people."

No Exit would have been far less meaningful, metaphorically, if the one locked door had not swung open at the end of the play, showing us that the continuation of any state of existence is as much a matter of choice as it is anything else.

SIRI - Chasing Sirius - Beware The "Bird Pattern"

Yeah Baby!!!

Dr. Doom - Nouriel Roubini

Those who believe in a second half recovery this year "are delusional" he says.

The man who predicted the current financial crisis said the US recession could drag on for years without drastic action.

Among his solutions: fix the housing market by breaking "every mortgage contract."

"We are in the 15th month of a recession," said Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, told CNBC in a live interview. "Growth is going to be close to zero and unemployment rate well above 10 percent into next year."





Echoing a speech he made earlier in the day, Roubini said he sees "no hope for the recession ending in 2009 and will more than likely last into 2010."

Roubini, who is also known as "Dr. Doom," told CNBC that the risk of a total meltdown has been reversed for now but that the economy is going through "a death by a thousand cuts." He also said that "most of the U.S. financial institutions are entirely insolvent."

"The market friendly view for the banks is nationalization," said Roubini. "Temporarily take over the banks, clean them up and get them working again."

"We could end up ... with a 36-month recession, that could be L-shaped stagnation, or near depression," Roubini said. He puts the chance of a severe U-shaped recession at 66.7 percent, and a less severe L-shaped recession at 33.3 percent.

"If you expect prices to be lower tomorrow, why would you buy today?", asked Roubini. He says it's easier to break out of am inflationary cycle than a deflationary one, and while a year of deflation "is okay," longer would be "a disaster."

So what can the government do? The easy part is lowering interest rates and buying toxic assets. The hard part, he says, will be tackling housing. Roubini says that the housing market, like a company restructuring in bankruptcy, needs to have "face value reduction of the debt." Rather than go through mortgages one by one, he says reduction has to be "across the board...break every mortgage contract."

Roubini also took issue with the $800 billion stimulus package, saying it's not enough. For one thing, there's only $200 billion upfront, and half of that is a tax cut, which Roubini calls "a waste of money" that is not going to make a difference.

Finally, while he says there will be "a light at the end of the tunnel", it'll probably get worse before it gets better.

Those who believe in a second half recovery this year "are delusional" he says.

In fact, based on Roubini's calculations, we could conceivably see the S&P 500 at 500, the Dow at 5000.

The Bigger They Are...The Bigger They Are! "America's best days lie ahead."

Berkshire Hathaway Reports Worst Year Ever
By SCOTT PATTERSON

Mr. Buffett, in his annual letter closely read by shareholders and nonshareholders alike, said he didn't expect an improved economy any time soon but did expect better times eventually.

"Our country has faced far worse travails in the past," he said. "Without fail, however, we've overcome them." He declined to draw a correlation between stocks and economics, saying that while he was certain the economy would be "in shambles for 2009" that "does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall."

Mr. Buffett credited the federal government for stepping in with massive assistance last year, saying the intervention was "essential" to avoiding a total breakdown. But he cautioned there could be "unwelcome aftereffects," such as inflation.

Berkshire's annual net income fell to $4.99 billion in 2008 from $13.21 billion the previous year amid poor results from the firm's insurance holdings and big declines in stock holdings such as Coca-Cola Co. and American Express Co. Berkshire also owns See's Candy, Fruit of the Loom and Benjamin Moore paint, which are privately held, but its insurance businesses (GEICO) generate the bulk of the parent company's results.

Mr. Buffett conceded in his letter that he "did some dumb things" in the past year, such as boosting the company's holdings of the oil giant ConocoPhillips when oil prices were near their peak. Since then, oil prices have tumbled and shares of ConocoPhillips and many other energy outfits are down sharply.

He also said he made a $244 million investment in two Irish banks "that appeared cheap." At year-end, Berkshire wrote the holdings down to their market value of $27 million, an 89% loss on the investment.

The letter also provided new details on some moves Mr. Buffett made in late 2008 as the credit crisis worsened. Berkshire invested $14.5 billion in fixed-income securities from companies such as General Electric Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. To fund the purchases, the letter says, he sold part of his holdings in ConocoPhillips, Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble Co.--"holdings I would have preferred to keep," he said.



Berkshire Hathaway

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRKA and NYSE: BRKB) is a conglomerate holding company headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, U.S., that oversees and manages a number of subsidiary companies. Berkshire Hathaway's core business is insurance, including property and casualty insurance, reinsurance and specialty nonstandard insurance. The Company averaged an annual growth in book value of 20.3% to its shareholders for the last 44 years, while employing large amounts of capital, and minimal debt.

Warren Buffett is the company's chairman and CEO. Buffett has used the "float" provided by Berkshire Hathaway's insurance operations (a policyholder's money which it holds temporarily until claims are paid out) to finance his investments.

Berkshire's class A shares sold for $96,600 as of December 31, 2008, making them the highest-priced shares on the New York Stock Exchange, in part because they have never had a stock split. Shares closed over $100,000 for the first time on October 23, 2006 and closed at an all-time high of $150,000 on December 13, 2007.

Berkshire's CEO, Warren Buffett, is respected for his investment prowess and his deep understanding of a wide spectrum of businesses. His annual chairman letters are read and quoted widely.



The following is an excerpt from Warren Buffett's 2008 Shareholder Letter

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Our decrease in net worth during 2008 was $11.5 billion, which reduced the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 9.6%. Over the last 44 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $70,530, a rate of 20.3% compounded annually.*

The table on the preceding page, recording both the 44-year performance of Berkshire’s book value and the S&P 500 index, shows that 2008 was the worst year for each. The period was devastating as well for corporate and municipal bonds, real estate and commodities. By yearend, investors of all stripes were bloodied
and confused, much as if they were small birds that had strayed into a badminton game.

As the year progressed, a series of life-threatening problems within many of the world’s great financial institutions was unveiled. This led to a dysfunctional credit market that in important respects soon turned non-functional. The watchword throughout the country became the creed I saw on restaurant walls when I was young: “In God we trust; all others pay cash.”

By the fourth quarter, the credit crisis, coupled with tumbling home and stock prices, had produced a paralyzing fear that engulfed the country. A freefall in business activity ensued, accelerating at a pace that I have never before witnessed. The U.S. – and much of the world – became trapped in a vicious negative-feedback cycle. Fear led to business contraction, and that in turn led to even greater fear.

This debilitating spiral has spurred our government to take massive action. In poker terms, the Treasury and the Fed have gone “all in.” Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects. Their precise nature is anyone’s guess, though one likely consequence is an onslaught of inflation.

Moreover, major industries have become dependent on Federal assistance, and they will be followed by cities and states bearing mind-boggling requests. Weaning these entities from the public teat will be a political challenge. They won’t leave willingly.

Whatever the downsides may be, strong and immediate action by government was essential last year if the financial system was to avoid a total breakdown. Had that occurred, the consequences for every area of our economy would have been cataclysmic. Like it or not, the inhabitants of Wall Street, Main Street and the various Side Streets of America were all in the same boat.

Amid this bad news, however, never forget that our country has faced far worse travails in the past. In the 20th Century alone, we dealt with two great wars (one of which we initially appeared to be losing); a dozen or so panics and recessions; virulent inflation that led to a 211⁄2% prime rate in 1980; and the Great Depression of the 1930s, when unemployment ranged between 15% and 25% for many years. America has had no shortage of challenges.

Without fail, however, we’ve overcome them. In the face of those obstacles – and many others – the real standard of living for Americans improved nearly seven-fold during the 1900s, while the Dow Jones Industrials rose from 66 to 11,497. Compare the record of this period with the dozens of centuries during which humans secured only tiny gains, if any, in how they lived. Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America’s best days lie ahead.

Friday - Feb 27, 2008 close
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.(Public, NYSE:BRK.A)
78,600.00 +250.00

Yes. That's $78,600.00 per share. Symbol BRK.A
Can't short that...

Rocky Mt News - Final Edition - Creative Destruction??? (no news, is no news!)

Final Edition from Matthew Roberts on Vimeo.

After 149 years and 311 days, the Rocky Moutain News published its FINAL EDITION on February 27, 2009

"The unthinkable has become commonplace"..."An uninformed society breeds a lot of social evils"...Very sad.

Slumdog Millionaire: "D. It is written"

Slumdog Millionaire cleaned up at Sunday night’s Oscars, taking home eight Academy Awards.

Best Picture, Directing, Song, Score, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, and Writting (adapted screenplay).

A film made for $13 Million, a nonexistent publicity budget, no recognisable stars, subtitled in Hindi, based on a book written by a part-time writer...if there was one movie that was destined not to sweep the Oscars, surely it was "Slumdog Millionaire".

So, how did it do it?

A. The filmmakers cheated

B. They got lucky

C. It's a work of genius

D. It is written

The story of how impoverished Indian teen Jamal Malik became a contestant on the Hindi version of "Who Wants to be A Millionaire?" -- an endeavor made without prize money in mind, rather, an effort to prove his love for his friend Latika, who is an ardent fan of the show.

As the movie ends in the happy reunion of Jamal and Latika, the woman he loves, the answer is: "D. It is written".

With Sunday night's success, life imitated art in spectacular fashion.

Winner, Best Adapted Screenplay - Simon Beaufoy

ACCEPTANCE SPEECH
Hi gang. Thank you very much indeed. There are certain places in the universe you never imagine standing. For me, it's the moon, the South Pole, the Miss World podium and here. It's a tremendous honor, so thank you to the Academy. I certainly wouldn't be standing here tonight without Vikas Swarup, who wrote the book, without which none of Slumdog would ever have happened. So thank you, Vikas.

Tessa Ross from Film4 who shoved the manuscript to my hand and said this is yours, you must go to India. Thank you. My parents who've always supported me throughout everything. My wife Jane, for whom repressed English writers have to write love stories 'cause they can't really say what they mean. Susan Landau and Charlotte Knight, both my manager and my agent, um, and of course, the wonderful Dev, the wonderful Latika and the cast and crew of the film who have taught me so much about India and so much about writing, so they've all sort of changed my life. And finally, um, thank you so much to Danny and Christian, the other two musketeers. Thank you very much.

Slumdog Millionaire - August, 15, 2007 draft script by Simon Beaufoy (based on the novel by Vikas Swarup) - hosted by: Fox Searchlight - in pdf format

The Greatest Depression

www.trendsresearch.com

Gerald Celente is a trend forecaster, author, and CEO of The Trends Research Institute.

Celente was born in The Bronx. His early political experience has included running a mayoral campaign in Yonkers, New York.

In 1979 Celente heard President Carter call The Shah of Iran "a bastion of stability in the Middle East." Celente had been to Iran and saw that a revolution was imminent. He realized Carter was believing what was politically convenient for him to believe and at that point Celente declared himself "a political atheist." Celente invested in gold and oil which he correctly ascertained would soar in value when the Iranian Revolution took place. He took the money he earned and began the Trends Research Institute in 1980.

Gerald Celente founded The Trends Research Institute (initially called the Socio-Economic Research Institute of America) in 1980 in Rhinebeck, New York. Its successful predictions include Black Monday, the fall of the Soviet Union, the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the dot.com bubble burst, the subprime mortgage crisis, and the financial Panic of 2008 including the statement that "corporate giants would tumble to their death." The Trends Research Institute publishes the Trends Journal, a publication that identifies, forecasts and analyzes business, socioeconomic, political, consumer, environmental and other trends. The purpose and focus of the Trends Journal is to inform readers of future trends and provide strategies on how to prepare and profit from what lies ahead.

Celente has criticized the core Consumer Price Index because it does not integrate statistics for food and fuel. He accuses the Federal Reserve of "jive talk" about interest rates, claiming that they are in a "rate trap" where lowering interest rates crashes the dollar and raising them crashes the economy. He claims the Fed is exacerbating the economic crisis of 2008 by "bailing out their buddies with cheap money". He also believes that the general populace has more wisdom regarding the crisis than Wall Street, the media, and the political world. He has repeatedly said the public should not be looking for solutions to the economic crisis from people who failed to see it coming in the first place. Celente is on record with the Hudson Valley Business Journal and UPI presswire service as having stated on November 12, 2007 that the coming year would bring the beginning of an economic crisis "the likes of which no one alive has ever seen."

On November 14, 2008, Celente appeared on Fox Business Network and predicted economic depression, tax rebellions, food riots, and more concern for buying food than Christmas presents by 2012 in the United States. Celente also has predicted in his Top Trends of 2009 newsletter that governments across the country would be squeezing the little guy for every last dime wherever it could.

Celente also predicts in 2009 and beyond food-producing gardens will become common on people's lawns, as resources generally become more scarce. Celente says to escape the mood of economic depression people will be delighting in entertainment and alcohol. Other predictions for 2009 and beyond include a possible revolutionary advance in renewable energy technologies, miracle cures from stem cell research, a shift toward holistic healing practices, and a crash of the overpriced college-industrial complex.

It's a dog-eat-dog world...Sirius(ly)

UPDATE: Sirius XM Reiterates Bankruptcy Potential On Tuesday
February 13, 2009: 02:23 PM ET
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200902131423DOWJONESDJONLINE000825_FORTUNE5.htm

(Updates throughout with details, background and comments from hedge fund manager and analyst)

By Nat Worden and Andrew Edwards

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Gamesmanship between media moguls in a high-stakes standoff over control of the satellite radio industry continued Friday as Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI) reiterated that it could file for bankruptcy as early as Tuesday if it can't reach a deal to meet its mounting debt obligations.

That disclosure came as the embattled satellite-radio provider announced it exchanged $172.5 million in notes that come due in December for new notes that come due in June 2011.

The move doesn't address the $175 million in bonds that mature Tuesday and are majority-owned by satellite mogul Charles Ergen, according to The Wall Street Journal. Because of the pending bond payment Tuesday, many see Sirius's fate being decided this weekend.

The Journal reported Friday that Sirius XM has significantly narrowed the divide in negotiations with Ergen, who controls Dish Network Corp. (DISH) and EchoStar Corp. (SATS), over a deal to save itself from bankruptcy. But the country's sole satellite radio operator continues to discuss a rival offer from Liberty Media Corp., which is controlled by John Malone.

The situation pits Ergen and Malone - two longtime, asset-swapping rivals in the media business who are both based in Englewood, Colo. - against each other with Sirius XM Chief Executive Mel Karmazin trying to salvage his equity holdings in the company along with his legacy.

A spokesman for Sirius XM didn't respond to inquiries. Marc Lumpkin, a spokesman for EchoStar declined to comment, as did Courtnee Ulrich, a spokeswoman for Liberty Media.

A hedge fund manager with a stake in the outcome of the negotiations who declined to be identified said Friday's announcement likely means Sirius XM likely is telling debt holders that it's on the verge of a deal to avoid bankruptcy.

"You can't give them a new security and then go bankruptcy three days later," he said.

XM Sirius said it will pay debt holders accepting the exchange offer a fee of $9.45 million, with $5.07 million paid in cash and the rest in Sirius XM common shares. The company's stock was recently trading up 3 cents to 10 cents. Sirius XM's 9.625% coupon 2013 bonds traded up 13% to 46 cents on the dollar, according to Market Axess.

Ergen began acquiring Sirius XM debt in the fall. He has offered to inject about $500 million into Sirius XM and restructure the debt he holds in the company in return for control. His offer is contingent on the successful renegotiation of about $600 million in Sirius bank loans and about $200 million in other debt. Also, he is reportedly prepared to let Karmazin, who took the reins at Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. in 2004 and guided it through its arduous merger with XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc., keep his job.

Ergen had made an unsolicited offer to take control of Sirius XM last year, but the company rebuffed it.

Liberty Media, which controls Dish Network rival DirecTV Group Inc. (DTV), has said it would make an investment that would enable Sirius XM to meet its credit obligations in exchange for a sizable stake, a person close to the situation told the Journal earlier this week.

Neither offer involves buying out Sirius's equity holders.

After the landmark satellite radio merger was approved in July, the company emerged from the regulatory process with its growing business buried under a crushing debt load that now amounts to $3.25 billion. Plans to refinance its debt were quickly dashed as the financial crisis began to envelop Wall Street, making it all but impossible for companies to tap the credit markets.

Meanwhile, deals with a number of major automakers have left the company's fortunes largely intertwined with the U.S. auto industry, which is fighting a weakening global economy.

"There is real value to Sirius XM underneath all its debt," said Frederick Moran, analyst with the Stanford Group Co. "Karmazin is doing the best he can to stave off bankruptcy, but it has been an uphill battle given the company's slumping subscriber growth and lack of cash flow and profitability."

Moran said the satellite television providers don't compete with Sirius XM, but they do see an opportunity in the company's troubles to get into a business that is complimentary to their own.

"[Satellite radio and television assets] could gel together nicely," Moran said. "If you're one of the two largest satellite TV providers with a multimillion subscriber base, you could move into radio and cross-market your offerings while sharing programming resources, and you could utilize your satellites and radio transmissions more fully."

-By Nat Worden and Andrew Edwards, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5216; nat.worden@dowjones.com

(Kerry E. Grace contributed to this story.)


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-13-09 1423ET
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

It's Time To Get Sirius

No offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or securities derivative products of any kind, or any type of trading or investment advice, recommendation or strategy, is made, given or in any manner endorsed by "Hello_World", or any of its affiliates. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success.

Get Sirius...now! NOW!

To Serve Man (it's a cookbook)

The Sirius Question 2009???

Satellite Radio Still Reaches for the Payday
By TIM ARANGO

DID you hear what Howard Stern said the other day? Neither did we. But we read about it on a blog.

...by switching to satellite radio three years ago, Mr. Stern swapped cultural cachet for big money.

Then — poof! — Mr. Stern all but disappeared. Even Jay Leno, during a recent interview with The New York Times about his decision to stay at NBC to host a prime-time show, cited Mr. Stern as an example of the dangers of obscurity.

“On radio, Howard to me was a populist. The truck driver, the average guy would listen in the cafe, the truck, the old car that’s 50 years old and still has an AM radio,” said Mr. Leno in the interview. “But I don’t hear him quoted anymore. People don’t say: ‘Hey, did you hear what Howard said today?’ ”

The company has never turned a profit and cannot predict when it ever will.

“I don’t think that the performance of the stock is related to the performance of the company, it’s related to the balance sheet of the company and the need for the company to refinance.” - Mel Karmazin

Sirius XM simply isn’t a blue-chip stock like General Electric, so the interest the company would have to pay to raise funds is likely to be exorbitant. Mr. Karmazin said many lenders are willing to refinance, “but they are interested in it at very unattractive terms.”

...Sirius XM does have a serious flaw in its capital structure. Its costs, which include servicing its pile of debt, appear to be too high to make the business viable.

Twas The Night Before Xmas

Xmas Time For The Jews

Give it on up to Homelessville

The Ink Tank: a daily roundup of editorial cartoons - Merry Xmas!

Know when to "Fuld" 'em...

Time-Out for "F-Bomb" on Morning Joe Show

Heeeey Joe--where you goin' with that "fleeting expletive" in your head? Can you say the "P" word"? P-whipped Joe Scarborough drops the "F-word" on TV, then tries to act as if this is the first time he's ever used the word. Give it a break. Then they're texting, and emailing, and apologizing. I think Joe said "my wife...my wife...my wife..." about ten times or more. Joe, you said the "F-word". So-(efn)-what! Move-on, it's part of life. Okay...it's TV, and you're thinking FCC...blah, blah, blah. But Joe...you're more worried about going home, and having to face your wife. Wow! What the "F" has this world come to?

It's A New World...